The demise of Suharto has created opportunity and peril for Indonesia. Opportunity because an old, non-democratic regime is history and a new history and a new democratic process exists. Perils because the country could split without a strong center or another non-democrat could take power. Democracy is best fostered by and coexistent with economic growth, a market economy, and the rule of law. Indonesia since World War II has made one failed step towards democracy shortly after the war and is again trying after the 1998 fall of Suharto. Compared to the past regimes, the current regime is more hospitable to the conditions needed for democracy. The United States remains a leader in action and as a model. Asian nations like India, Taiwan, and the Philippines continue to take steps down the democratic road. Japan, too often unsupportive, no longer carries the weight it did. In the last 15 years, with fits and starts, democracy has visited and even stayed in places it seemingly had little chance in. Indonesia’s turn may not be next, but the view here is that it is in line, and its chance to finally take its turn are, in the words of Devi Fortuna Anwar, a former advisor to former President Habibie, “Better than even.”
APPENDIX
TABLE 1
ASSESSEDINCOME EUROPEANS INDONESIANS CHINESE/OTHERS
Below 200 guilders 1,000 1,434,077 29,700
200-900 guiders 10,375 562,155 161,691
900-2500 25,701 28,932 34,761
2500-5000 24,643 5,940 9,491
5000-10000 17,226 1,034 2,842
10000-20000 4,622 189 724
20000-40000 831 17 185
over 40000 224 4 53
Source: George Kahin, National and Revolution in Indonesia,
Cornell Univ. Press, Ithaca, NY, 1952, p.36
TABLE 2
COUNTRY CORRUPTION POTENTIAL FOR SOCIAL UNREST
Indonesia 9.91 9.64
Japan 4.25 0.88
Malaysia 7.50 4.88
Philippines 6.71 4.43
Singapore 1.55 1.18
Thailand 7.57 3.86
Vietnam 8.50 5.00
Source by 600 regional businessmen where 0=best
and 10=worst. Source: Political & Economic Risk
Consultancy, Singapore, 1999
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