addition, they disliked each other (Orwin 42).
All of the circumstances that resulted from the war may have
contributed in some measure to the outbreak and continuation of
the conflict between Iran and Iraq (Iran-Iraq War 77-78). The
situation worsened in September of 1980 when Iraq launched an
attack on Iran to take control of the waterway that divided the
two countries (”Iranian Revolution” p. 835).
During the war, industry suffered. Chemical, steel, and
iron plants in the war zone were heavily shelled. There have
been shortages in electricity, fuel, and spare parts. The
available pool of workers has diminished as thousands of men
marched off to the front lines to fight. This caused great
economic problems throughout the mid-1980’s. Iraq attempted to
devastate oil economy even further. Tankers and ships 50 miles
off the oil terminal were struck. Iran would be deprived of a
major source of income (Orwin 41).
By 1984 it was reported that there were one million refuges
in the Iranian province of Khuzestan. Some 300,000 Iranian
soldiers and 250,000 Iraqi troops had been killed, or wounded.
Among the injured were Iranian soldiers who sustained burns,
blisters, and lung damage from Iraqi chemical weapons (Orwin 47).
The war lasted about 8 years and Iran suffered casualties, not
only in people, but in economy and leadership as well.
Because of the war with Iraq, and the purges going on in
Iran, the economy was severely depressed. Besides the enormous
human cost, economic losses from the war exceed $200 billion.
Agricultural growth has declined as a result of war, also (Orwin
34).
During the crisis and during the war with Iraq, industry is
plagued by poor labor management, a lack of competent technical
and managerial personnel, and shortages of raw material and spare
parts. Agricultural suffers from shortage of capital, raw
materials, and equipment, and as a result, food production has
declined. Also, out of an estimated work force of 12 million,
unemployment is up to 3-4 million (Orwin 16). Iran’s economy was
desperate.
In connection with the devastating economy with the war,
there was economic suffering through purges, the next step in
crisis. Extensive purges were carried out in the army, in the
school and university systems, and in some of the departments of
government although the Ministries of Justice and Commerce proved
significantly more resistant because of the entrenched power of
conservative elements there). Additionally, new institutions
were created, like the Revolutionary Guards – including the
creation of a ministry for them – and the counsel of Guardians,
along with a string of other judicial bodies (Akhavi 53).
Purges eliminated many qualified personnel, and lowered the
morale of the Iranian people.
Finally, after about 9 years of crisis and fighting among
different groups, there was a breakthrough in the revolution,
with the return of conservatives. The Ayatollah Khomeini died in
May of 1989, and a new leader by the name of Ali Hashemi
Rafsanjani was elected and came to power two months later. This
would start the convalescence stage of Crane Brinton’s
revolution. Rafsanjani has not actually called for a reversal of
strict Islamic injunctions, but in oblique ways he is signaling
that he favors a more relaxed approach, especially in the
enforcement of the hijab (Ramazani 7).
Under Rafsanjani, the return of the church has been allowed
to occur, which is another step in the theory of a revolution.
On August 2, 1991, Iran resumed diplomatic relations with Iraq
and had also resolved the issue over the pilgrimage of Iranian
Muslims to Mecca, which has been suspended for three years.
Inside Iran, the most significant development in the last few
months took place in October, when several Iranian leaders teamed
up in a maneuver to marginalize opponents (Igram A-10).
Twelve years after Khomeini came to power, Iran’s Islamic
revolution has finally softened around the edges. The signs of
fitful change are everywhere. On Tehran’s streets women still
observe hijab (the veil), the Islamic injunction that women keep
themselves covered except for their faces and hands. But some
have exchanged their shapeless black chedors for slightly fitted
raincoats in colors like green and purple. Women’s fingernails
are starting to sport glosses, too (Ramazani 32). Obviously,
the republic of virtue has been eliminated, which is the next
part in the convalescence.
After Khomeini’s death, many radical groups were weakened.
This led to the elimination of radicals. President Rafsanjani,
with the support of Khomeini, swiftly eliminated four of his most
hard-line adversaries from the political scene by challenging
their right to re-election. With Rafsanjani in control, Iranians
took a new look at crisis. His pragmatic policies were firmly
established, replacing militancy and isolation. Rafsanjani
campaigned to decrease the influence of important opponents,
therefore improving ties with the western world. As well as
attracting foreign trade. The radicals were finally eliminated,
and Iran could return to the way it was.
Economic problems after a revolution are good. Iran had
been in debt from the time the revolution started, and an
economic recovery was needed. There was an increase in oil
revenue in 1990, since ties with non-oil bearing countries had
been replaced. There was also and increase in oil price, as well
as other raw materials. Iran did have ten billion dollars froze
in American banks, which still partly remain there today. The
country’s economic problems were starting to be resolved.
The return of status quo, is the final step in the
convalescence stage. Iran has returned to the status quo. They
have many ties, including ties with North Korea, Libya, Syria,
and Europe. Trade and friendliness has increased with Russia, as
well. Russia currently want to build nuclear reactors in Iran.
Commerce opened with Japan, Pakistan, Turkey, and even some
allies of Iraq. Rafsanjani wants to end Iran’s pariah status in
the world community and gain desperately needed aid. He thinks
they are in a period of reconstruction (Desmond 32).
The Iranian Revolution is over, and the country is back on
its feet. Rafasanjani was an incredible help to the economy and
the government, and remains in power today. Iran has a great
number of allies, which improves its ties with the west. Iran’s
oil industry is booming, and the country’s economy remains
stable. Americans are again allowed to be seen on the streets of
Tehran, and the foreign debt has reduced. The U.S. still has
their problems with Iran (the money in the banks), but these
problems are still in the process of being resolved. Iran is
progressing steadily, and has recovered from the revolution. The
Iranian Revolution follows Crane Brinton’s theory on a revolution
because the revolution included symptoms, rising fever, crisis,
and convalescence, just as the theory states.
Akhavi, Shahrough. “Institutionalizing New Order in Iran.”
Current History. Feb. 1987: 53-56, 83.
Bill, James A. “The Shah, The Ayatollah, and the U.S.” The
Economist. June 1987: 24-26.
Cottam, Richard W. “Revolutionary Iran.” Current History. Jan.
1980: 12-16, 35.
Ibram, Youssef. “Standoff in the Gulf: Testing the Waters in
Tehran.” The New York Times.
“Iran.” The New Encyclopedia Britanica. Vol. 21 1992: 860-
861, 896-897.
Orwin, George. Iran Iraq: Nations at War. New York: Shirmer
Books, 1990.
Ramazani, R.K. “Iran’s Islamic Revolution and the Persian Gulf.”
Current History. Jan. 1985: 5-8, 32.
“The Iranian Revolution.” People and Nations. Austin: Holt,
Rinehart and Winston, Inc. 1993.