A contribution to developing of circumstances made limitation of offer, growth of global uncertaintes and changes of Russian and foreign investments. Because of growth of uncertainties there were limited investing horizons and long-term investments were revised.
As a result there were lowered growing temps of direct foreign investments. The total investments into gross domestic product are still about 22%, it is lower than level typical for actively developing Asian countries. Moreover worsening of crediting conditions, growing uncertainty and supposed unemployment growth have already influenced to consuming growing temps.[22].
In the future there will be problem: the investments are mostly concentrated in non-trade spheres. Account for non-trade sector has 2\3 of all the investments into the main capital that is reflected in the total growth structureMore detailed investments analyze (of each branch) shows that the main investments volume is still concentrated in mining industry and transport.
Growth of investments in a trade sector have shortened in the first half year of 2008 to 8,1% (in 2007 it was about 16,1%). As concerns a non-trade sector, we can talk about retail trade takes place the sharp shortening of investments into the main capital, it is a result of toughening crediting conditions.
In the same time, investments into the main capital in the railway system raised to 49,3% in the first half year of 2008, it is possibly could be related to large previous orders to locomotives and passengers and cargo wagons[23].
Growth of a real salary goes ahead the productivity that stops competitive ability of economy.
However the salary growth begun to stop while unemployment rate is lagging indicator of a real commercial activity.
According to Rosstat’s information, during the first 9 months of 2008 the real growth of salary is 12,8% (for the same period of 2007 there was 16,2%)[24]. Unemployment rate lowered to 5,3%. This shows that economical developing temps still didn’t touch the labor market.
However, situation will change in 2008, big non-trade branches and labour-intensive branches like construction and building will open a realizing of already existing and new projects, adopting to higher cost of borrowings, lower availability of credits, undefended demand and, therefore, lower profitability. The similar situation we could expect: number of unemployed will grow as effect of restructuring of bank sector.
Held by Russian government anticrisis policy in 2008-2009 helped not only to prevent deep falling of economy, but also lead to positive growing temps.
The main indicators of economy (January – February of 2010 in per cent in comparison to similar period of the last year)[25].
gross domestic product - 104,5 (90,2);
Consumer price index to the end of period -102, 5 (104,1);
Industrial productivity index -105, 8 (85,4);
Investments into the main capital - 92,02 (82,8);
Productivity index of agriculture - 103,2 (102,2);
Real monetary income of population— 108,1(98,3);
Real salary — 102,0(99,6);
Turnover of retail — 100,8(101,3);
Export, mlrd dollars - 57,11(36,5);
Import, mlrd dollars. - 27,21(23,9);
Average price for oil Urals, dollars. США/barrel - 74,3 (42,6).
According to calculations of Ministry of economical Development of Russian Federation strengthening of ruble (in February 2010) in estimation to dollar was 0,1%, to euro – 4,4%, to pound – 3,1%. Strengthening of a real effective ruble rate is estimated for the first two months of current year, it makes 5%.
At the beginning of current year inflation is quite moderate. In the February of 2010 inflation was 0, 9% (1,7% - the last year), according to results of last two months prices raised to 2,5%, that is lower than during last two years (last year — 4,1%).
At the beginning of the year an important contribution to inflation have done traditional rising of tariffs. Housing and communal service for two months became more expensive to 11, 6%, but this is lower than in the last year (17,7%). Price growth raising in the beginning of 2010 year was caused by growth of monetary aggregates during the last months and irregular expenditure of budget[26].
Beginning positive trends of economy, that helps to suppose that growth even not strong is balanced and not based on appearing of new “bubbles” in different markets. Specialists of Ministry suppose that there is no any obvious backgrounds for the beginning of a new crisis wave which will take place according to estimations of some world experts.
Stable situation is in a social sphere – as a result of held anticrisis policy they could shorter the growth of social tension. In comparison to January of 2010 in February the situation has improved.
Total number of unemployed lowered to 6,4 mln. people and unemployment rate was 8,6% from economically active population (against 9,2% - in January). Moreover there is growth of a employer’s need in workers, this need was declared to governmental organizations of placing services[27].
In the same time, positive trends still not have constant character. Russia as the other world economies is in difficult economical conditions.
External factors have an active impact to the Russian economy. This is caused by circumstances that while temps of economical growth are high during last ten years, structure of our modern economy is still not ideal and it is not able to correspond to demands of dynamically developing country.
It differs from structure of economy in developed countries where specific weight of education, science and medicine is very high.
World economy crisis begun from USA, came to Russia at the end of summer – beginning of the fall an 2008. The last 2009 was difficult for Russian economy, it touched all the spheres.
In the beginning of 2010 Russia is still situating in hard conditions of a great number of great number of indefinite world economical factors. According to estimations of regional economical commissions UNO Russia (due to data of 16.02.2010г.) is still near to the ending crisis stage , therefore Russia is did not reach the bottom after which economy rise will follow.
In the end of 2008 – beginning 2009 Russian economy entered the new developing phase: production, public income and capitalization of companies are lower than earlier.
Crisis made to re-view the priorities in budget and finance-crediting policy to make some changes into legislation.
In a budget message of Government of Russian Federation about budget policy in 2010 - 2012 years (from 25.05.2009 г.) it was noted that budget policy should be oriented to adoption of budget system to changed conditions and to preparing the backgrounds for stable social and economical development of the country during after-crisis period. Conservative budget policy supposes control of governmental expenses, but harming strategic purposes of development.
In a middle-term perspective there appear limits to a budget expenses for the concrete directions of governmental expenditures. Moreover Ministries in charge should be interested in growth of expenditures productivity and not their rise.
There is no information in message regarding concrete offers, but there was mentioned that purpose of budget policy is not only to shorter the expenditures but also to create an active instrument for exiting from crisis and public producing support.
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[2]Problems of economy improvement for government and enterprises under conditions of world financial crisis: materials of annual scientific and practical conference of professors, studens and doctoral students, 6-7 th of May 2009 /[ed: Ryakhovskaya A. N. and others.]. – Moscow IAEU , 2009 — 514 p.
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[4]Problems of economy improvement for government and enterprises under conditions of world financial crisis: materials of annual scientific and practical conference of professors, studens and doctoral students, 6-7 th of May 2009 /[ed: Ryakhovskaya A. N. and others.]. – Moscow IAEU , 2009 — 514 p.
[5]Soros G. The world economical crisis and itspurposes: the new paradigm of financial markets /George Soros; translated from English by К. Vagner ; [edited by . О. Gurudeva]. – Moscow : Mann, Ivanov and Ferber , 2010.- 263 p.
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[9]World financial crisis: reasons, problems and ways to solve it: materials of internet conference, 15th of March-April 2009. /[ed.: V. G. Knyazev (and others). - Мoscow: REA, 2009.- 264 p.: illustrated.
[10]Kindlberger Ch. World financial crisisses: manias, panics and falls: [translated from English /Ch.Kindlberger, R. Аliber. - М.: Piter, 2010.- 540 p.
[11]World financial crisis under conditions of globalization: trends, problems and ways of salvation: materials of scientific conference, 24th of November. 2009 . /[ed: Ageev А. V. And others]. - Оrel: branchVZFEI, 2009.- 191 p.
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[14]Public system under conditions of a world finance crisis: trends, problems and perspectives of strategic and technologic development, ecological security: Russian scientific conference. November. - December. 2009 г.: collection of articles /[ed. А.А. Оgarkovandothers]. - Моskva: Globus, 2010.- 271 p.: illustrated.
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[16] Shuster D. Epicentre: paradox of a global crisis /Dmitry Shuster. [ed.] I. V. Rozmarinskiy. – Saint Petersbourg.; М.: Economicus; Omega-L, 2009.- 223 p.
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[18]World and financial market: reasons, problems and ways of solving: materials of internet conference. The 15th of March - 15th of April . 2009 г. /[ed.: V. G. Knyazev and others.]. – Moskwa:REA, 2009.- 264 p.: illustrated
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[22]Social consequences of world financial crisis: [collection] /Russian academy of state service under President of Russian Federation; ed. N.A. Volgina, A. I. Sherbakova. - M.: Izdatelstvo RAGS, 2009.- 198 p
[23]Impact of world financial crisis to the economy of Russia //Depositaruim. - 2009. - №9. - P. 3-9.
[24]Social consequences of world financial crisis: [collection] /Russian academy of state service under President of Russian Federation; ed. N.A. Volgina, A. I. Sherbakova. - M.: Izdatelstvo RAGS, 2009.- 198 p.
[25]Korneev I.F. Dynamic of economical showings at the going out of crisis in Russia //Collection of science articles issue 8 SPb.: Institut bisnesa I prava, 2010. - P. 24-27.
[26]Kabanova V.I. Strategies of going out of crisis for Russia// Collection of science articles issue 8 SPb.: Institut bisnesa i prava, 2010. - P. 17-20.
[27]Korneev I.F. Dynamic of economical showings at the going out of crisis in Russia //Collection of science articles issue 8 SPb.: Institut bisnesa I prava, 2010. - P. 24-27.