The sex ratio was only significant in 1990. In 1990, as the number of men for every 100 women increased the percentage of female-headed families declined. Thus indicating that the availability of men in general (regardless of their employment status) was an important determinant of family structure.
The results of the cross-sectional models in Table 3 provided tentative support for the second hypothesis, at least in terms of male unemployment. Both indicators of employment dislocation, the male unemployment rate and the percentage of males that worked part of the year, had different effects on the percentage of female-headed families. In the 1980 and 1990 models male unemployment had a positive effect on female-headed families while male part-year unemployment had no effect. In contrast, in 1970 the percentage of part-year males had a negative effect on female-headed families and the male unemployment rate was not significant.
From these cross-sectional models of determinants of female-headed families it is apparent that in terms of employment dislocation, male unemployment was important only in 1980 and 1990. The results for 1970 indicate that employment dislocation was not an important factor in determining the percentage of female-headed families in large cities. These results offer tentative support for the hypothesis that after 1980 employment dislocation had a positive effect on the growth of female-headed families. Clearly, there were different factors operating in the decades preceding 1980 and 1990 than in the 1960’s (decade preceding 1970). The next step in this analysis is to determine if trends in family structure were due to differences in the industrial and economic composition of the cities or to decade differences.
This is accomplished in Table 4 with the results based on a stacked or concatenated file of data from 1970, 1980, and 1990 for each city. Each city contributes records for three different points in time. Dummy variables for 1980 and 1990 were created to indicate decade differences with 1970 as the reference category. The first model contains only the decade controls. In this model, 29 percent of the overall variation in family structure by city is explained. Cities in both 1980 and 1990 were more likely to have female-headed families than cities in 1970.
The final step in this analysis is to examine what proportion of the differences in female-headed families is due to decade change and what part is due to compositional changes. The compositional changes minus decade changes are included in Model 2, while Model 3 contains both types of change.
When compositional changes are added to decade changes a much larger percent of the city variation in family structure is explained. Compositional changes explain about 60 percent of the variation in family structure between cities. These compositional variables had the same basic relationships with female-headed families as they did in the previous decade analysis, especially in decade models for 1980 and 1990. Similar to Model 1, in the combined model the dummy variables for 1980 and 1990 remained significant indicating that regardless of the composition of the city, decade differences in family structure still remain. Cities in 1980 and 1990 were more likely to have female-headed families than cities in 1970. Because these decade variables remained significant, decade differences in composition of cities cannot be used to fully explain city differences in female-headed families. In other words, decade differences in female-headed families were independent of other contributors to the growth of female-headed families. Thus, there were compositional differences in cities that contributed to family structure changes. This indicates further support for the second hypothesis that employment dislocation was an important factor in the growth of female-headed families.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, both the descriptive and the regression results offer some support for the two main hypotheses. Using cross-sectional descriptive statistics it is apparent that there was a transformation in the economies of large U. S . cities during the 1 970’s and 1 980’s .Manufacturing industries declined while service industries grew. In addition, unemployment rates nearly doubled. These results lend support to the first hypothesis concerning the relationship between the transformation of the economy and employment dislocation.
Secondly, results of decade regression models suggest that male unemployment had a positive effect on the growth of female-headed families in both 1980 and 1990. In addition, using a stacked data file, this unemployment effect remained statistically significant even when decade changes were controlled. Thus, indicating support for the second hypothesis that by 1980, employment dislocation (or male unemployment) was an important source of growth in female-headed families. In sum, support was found for Wilson’s arguments concerning the role the transformation of the economy has played in the growth of female-headed families. Male unemployment rates have increased in large cities in the last two decades. At the same time, these unemployment rates have contributed to the growth in female-headed families.
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