Mikhail Delyagin, Doctor of Economics Public director of Globalization Problem Institute
General theory of globalization
«World for Russia: the way we need it and what we can do with it»
(Analytical report open part in brief)
September 1998
Contents:
|Resume |2 | |I. Information technologies expansion |3 |
| | On difference significance in the technological time | | |speed | | |1.2. New resources for new technologies |9 | |1.3. Old technologies «depreciation» |10 | |II. Several consequences of markets globalization |12 | |2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization |12 | |2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism |13 | |!2.3. Financial competition |14 | | Technological process slowdown | | |III. Global regulation for global competition |17 | |3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»? |17 |
w6 | |3.3. Value of global regulation |18 |
About the author in brief
Delyagin, Mikhail Gennadjevich, born in 1968, Doctor of Economics.
From 1990 till 1993 – expert of the B. Eltsyn Group of Experts, since 1994 – leading analyst of the President of Russia Analytic Department, since 1996 – referent of the President of Russia assistant. Since March 1997 – advisor of the vice-prime-minister – Minister of Internals, since June 1997 – advisor of the first vice-prime-minister Mr. B. Nemtsov. On his leaving the government one day prior to August 17th, he established a Globalization Problem Institute. In the beginning of October 1998 after new government under Mr. Primakov had started its work, he was restored at the public service.
He has more than 300 publications (including in the USA, Germany, France, China, India, Egypt etc.), 4 monographs, with the latest - «Economy of non-payments» was republished for three times since 1996 till 1997.
Resume
1. Information technologies development has brought to:
. «meta-technologies» creation, application of which makes it impossible for the party which applies such technologies to compete with the developers of these technologies;
. reorientation of technologies from necessary material objects formation to necessary type of conscious and culture formation
(transformation from high-tech to high-hume);
. acceleration of information technologies development to such extent that «short», theoretical investments are productive for the most advanced information technologies;
. approximate depreciation of traditional technologies;
. Information society creation in which money plays second role as compared with technologies.
. Major humanity technological development prospects:
. Exacerbation and compelling character acquisition by divultion between developed and backward countries, and also between developed countries and creating new technologies and the rest developed countries;
. Insulation of people engaged in information technologies into internal
«information community», its concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow concentration of the «information community» of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress in the «most developed» countries;
. progress termination beyond the developed countries; social and financial degradation of the developing countries;
. Possible abrupt slowdown of the progress in the result of global financial crises and destructive competition between the USA and
European Currency Union.
. Global monopolies formation is being performed:
. At global markets of separate financial instruments;
. In the course of these markets integration process (reduction of the
«transformation value» among them to negligible level) as information technologies advance – in the form of the united global monopoly.
These processes will demand in the nearest future creation of the overnational regulation mechanism for global monopolies, which will be of more malaise character.
| The whole development of the humanity including in the field of | |economics is determined nowadays and will be determined in the | |nearest decade by progress to the new qualitative level with two | |fundamental processes simultaneously: new technologies development, | |information technologies primarily, and based on it quick competition| |globalization, primarily in the financial markets. |
!lvl0I. Information technologies expansion
1.1. Information technologies: money recedes into the background
Technological development has brought in the middle nineties to actual creation by the most advanced part of the humanity that very «information community» which has been widely discussed for the last decades and so that no one takes the matter seriously.
Realities of its functioning, casual connections and competitive potential by the reason of intellectual and technological gap can be hardly perceivable by those who are beyond of that process.
The most important way of showing this qualitative technological breakthrough which has lead to creation of the information society and at the same time one of its major parts is creation and quick distribution of the so-called «meta-technologies».
Specifics of this type of technologies lies in that that the fact of thier implementation makes for the party which uses such technologies principially impossible to compete with the developer of these technologies in a serious level. This may be called a price for access to the effectiveness of a higher level which is provided by such technologies and which might be found in dealer and licensed systems. Modern advanced technologies in direct or indirect form place the user in the position of a licensee.
The most telling examples of meta-technologies are:
. Network computer: distribution of its memory in the net provides the developer with the whole information of the user and allows the developer to interfere into activity of the latter or even to control it (external control principle of the plugged in computer has bee already realized);
. Modern communication technologies which allow to wiretap all telephone messages all over the world; in the nearest future computer processing of the whole volume of these messages and also wiretap of all messages in the Internet will be possible;
. Different organization technologies; their main subgroups:
* Control technologies, including corporation activity organization: oriented to culture and value system of the country the developer, such technologies reduce competitiveness of the corporations which represent other cultures; we should also note that in general distribution within a society of a foreign types of culture which do not integrate with the culture of the society and as the result the culture which not only enriches it but remains detached from it, makes competitiveness of this society weaker;
* Formation of the mass conscious technology: permanent adaptation of the latter to the forms of influence arouses objective necessity in permanent renovation of the forms; without renovated technologies which at first appear in the leading country and then are distributed in other countries mass conscious of the society using technologies which influence it will get out of hand of the state.
Nowadays the said technologies have become predominating for their being the most productive. These technologies having sweepingly spread for the last years have already become a technological component of the information society: if we speak about it from the technological point of view we possibly half-consciously and non knowing about their peculiarities we intend first of all meta-technologies.
It is quite natural, that conscious transformation from creation of new technologies to their distribution and which is followed by creation of information society was expressed in the clearest form by the leader of this process Mr. W. Gates. He pointed out that the main factor for information technologies development as compared with the previous of 1997 year, lays not in their upgrading but in complex usage of already existing technical means for «information transparency» of all countries — «transparency» as far as it can be understood quiet homogeneous for the countries creating meta-technologies and aiming at protection of their global competitive advantages.
But significance of information technology distribution is not limited by creation of meta-technologies and safe provision of psychological, intellectual and technological leadership of their creators. Besides provision of global information transparency the most important part of information technologies is the possibility (in 1999 it is still potential) for deep and quite free reconstruction of mass conscious.
The point is that unlike traditional «material» technologies the product of which are the goods, the product of information technologies nolens volens is a certain condition of the human conscious including mass conscious. Moreover: the most significant part of information technologies was primarily aimed at such reconstruction of human conscious taking it into consideration as the major purpose for influence.
It is more effective to influence conscious than to influence the material. Technologies connected with it have already received the name. They are called «high-hume» versus «high-tech». In previous times technologies were oriented to matter but nowadays they are reorienting to the public conscience, public culture. Besides their high productivity, «high-hume» technologies differ with high changeability, i.e. maximum speed of making progress.
The pioneers of their exploration — the USA — engage the most mobile and in correspondingly the most effective form of financial capital — venture capital — to creation of the most effective type of information technologies. Engagement of such capital to creation of the ordinary technologies as it is may be shown by the experience of the developing countries is impossible because of «slowness» of the non-information technologies: performance of any project connected with such technologies demand for larger time period than traditionally «short» venture capital is ready to be invested.
In the result of it we observe destructive non-compliance of the speed of the venture capital turnover and establishment of traditional technologies. Wide-ranging investments of the venture capital are not effective for the national economy because of the said factors: it leaves without creating anything real and leaving after it only desolation.
But the speed of information technology development has a qualitative higher rank than ordinary technologies. That is why information technologies are the only type of technologies in respect of which «short» venture capital has a quite normal productivity. Their technological cycle is so small that it corresponds to the speed of the financial capital turnover.
That is why the American economy should not be afraid of «distending a soap exchange bubble»: it looks like a soap bubble only from outside. Actually the huge part of these venture investments is directed into the information technologies and at expense of their accelerated tempo of their development carries for their recipient quite normal productive but not venture character.
This is the principal advantage of the American economy over economics of other countries of the world. This is the reason for its medium term stability in the forthcoming global financial
|On difference significance in the technological time speed | |Significance of the time factor in new conditions is evidently | |demonstrated by the mass bankruptcy of computer firms in the USA. The| |bankruptcy is followed by the fact that implementation of new | |technological principles demands for such period of time that these | |principles become outdated. | |Thus, the company which directs a part of its resources from the | |sphere of technological race to the practical realization of new | |decisions reaches the slow scale of «technological time» and fails as| |compared with its competitors which remain in the zone of «pure» | |sphere of new ideas development in which the technological times | |changes in a quicker way. |
But application of «high-hume» technologies is connected also with danger. Thus, seeming easiness and impunity of conscious influence arouse the most dangerous professional illness of the employees engaged in the sphere of public relations – it! is the temptation to solve problems not in the real way but with the help of the so-called «brainwashing» method or we may use more exact German analogue of this term: ote Seelenmassage».
The first problem of «high-hume» is connected with it: on carrying away by it the control system (of the state or of the corporation) starts the process of self-hypnosis that makes it inadequate. It is principally important: «high-hume» technologies are dangerous not only for the object of their influence, but for their user as they also transform conscious of the user.
The second problem: to reach the political result it will be enough for the user of the «high-hume» technology to form necessary type of conscious of no more than 20% of the population being the elite of the society and influence on taking resolutions and being the example.
Efforts in this direction evidently draw the line between the elite and general mass of population and create within the society internal disagreements between the self-hypnosed elite and the rest population. Moreover: the elite being apart from the population began to percept the ideas, which correspond to its principles. In the result of it 80% of the intellectual potential of the society is lost – while the
Thus, gradual appliance of information technologies in respect of the elite class of the society is limited by the area of democratic borders of the elite class itself and that is why it reduces the society potential. We saw the example of the Russian reformers of 1992 — 1998 years, who could run away from the population by application such advanced information technologies to themselves to such extent as the communists could do for seventy years of their domination.
In the result of it we have a paradox: more advanced informa6tion society should be less flexible and adaptive and as a result less viable but more stable in its confrontation with non-information society. Is not it the reason for paradox viability of the authoritarian regimes in the end of XX century?
It is possible that this phenomenon is an «implemented guarantee» from the informational imperialism, from subordination of the entire world to one the most informed country. And the total mortification of the conscious of other countries with the help of information technologies is impossible because of differences in cultural aspect which automatically defend minimal intellectual and information sovereignty of each nation separately. But it would be too naive to hope for it as the major resolution of the forthcoming problems under the circumstances of gradual integration of cultures into united culture for the whole world (On the first stage into three major cultures — Christian, Islamic and Buddhistic).
Taking into consideration a private case of information war – «culture aggression» (i.e. obtrusion of its own culture to the society the potential of which it does not correspond) as an instrument of international competition (applied only mainly in the inconscient way, in the order of markets winning for sale — the carries of such culture), we should re- estimate the role playing by traditions.
Traditions are the psychological protection from something new: it is the attempt to live as if nothing has happened. In the conditions of reconstruction of mass conscious of actual and probable competitors of the tradition starts to act not like an ostrich, but it goes through minimization of negative consequences in changes having «squatter» order: attempt to cancel by ignoring of these charges or cancellation of their major part. I.e. it is a spontaneous reflection of the information attack by the information method.
* * *
The above said means that creation and distribution of meta- technologies reduces significance of financial resources from the point of view of competitiveness of the societies and corporations: if they have been the main source of power earlier, now they become only its consequence. Intellect has become the main source of the market power. Intellect is embodied in organizational structures of the research and market corporations creating meta-technologies and holding control over such technologies.
Rephrasing Mr. M. Fridman we can say that money recedes into the background after creation of the information society. The reason lies in the following: that property right for the meta-technologies makes an organically inalienable part of the holder and his intellect, with the help of which these technologies have been created and are supported, according to technological reasons.
Meta-technologies in a greater degree will transform in a «second nature» making the borders and creating conditions for development of the personality and the humanity in general. As such these technologies will gradually exchange market relationship and property rights performing these functions since the moment of money appearance.
1.2. New resources for new technologies
Disintegration of the USSR has given to the developed countries such a financial and intellectual possibility that they were able to speed up their development on the «lagan» of the disintegrated USSR (differences in orientations and correspondingly outlook for Europe and the USA shows that the first one has got finances and the latter – intellect). Thus, having won in the cold war developed countries not only destroyed their global antagonist as we have got used to consider but they managed to do more: they have captured and used its resources which were truly speaking dreadfully used (the socialism differed from the capitalism also in the fact that on preparing the best in the world people resources it united them into organizations in the worst way).