& Policy Issues For The Former USSR Essay, Research Paper
??????????? On
the 26th of December 1991, the Soviet parliament voted itself, and the USSR,
out of existence. The hastily formed Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS),
an association with neither constitution nor statutes, took its place. At its
inception, Russia hoped the CIS would maintain a ?common space? concerning
strategy, economics, law, communications, and so forth. However, many of the
successor states, most notably the Ukraine, view the CIS as an emergency
organisation; only a useful vehicle for handling the Soviet inheritance and
dismembering the old structures in a rational and peaceful manner. Given
historical the history of the region, there remains great suspicion among the
former Soviet republics that Russia will once again seek to control the
disparate states which constituted the USSR. It is against this complex
background of distrust, economic dislocation, and rising ethnic tensions, that
foreign policy and security issues have to be formed. Policy formation and
implementation is influenced by two distinct factors: relations with the
outside world, primarily the industrialised nations of the West, and relations among
members of the CIS. In this respect we will first assess the salient issues pertaining
to the CIS?s ?foreign? contacts, and then examine the delicate political
relationships between Russia and the rest of the CIS. RUSSIA: SECURITY
AND FOREIGN POLICY IN THE WESTERN WORLD??????????? After
1985, former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev claimed that the central issue
for Soviet security was integration into the world economy. Despite the
revolutionary change in Russia?s political circumstances, this policy has not
only remained but also become vital to the maintenance of democratic and
economic reform. After a tour of western capitals in 1992, Gorbachev?s
successor, Boris Yeltsin, mentioned two fundamental principles of his
governments foreign policy: ?to pave the way for Russia?s membership in the ?community
of civilised states? and to secure ?maximum outside support? for its internal
transformation.?[1] Therefore,
Yeltsin believes that the only way for Russia to become a modern civilised
state is to overcome its isolation and develop adequate contacts with the
international community. To achieve this aim, Russia has lobbied hard to join
international institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development, the International Monetary Fund, and stepped up its participation
in the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE). In the
military sphere, Yeltsin and his supporters radically reduced strategic arms to
a number far below the limits set by the START 2 treaty, ratified and continued
the CSCE treaty on the reduction of conventional forces, joined the North
Atlantic Co-operation Council, and worked in partnership with the western
powers to make the UN a much more effective organisation for mediating
conflicts and restoring peace. ??????????? All
of these steps, in addition to sweeping internal socio- economic reforms, were designed
to convince powerful G7 nations that it was time to support Russia?s reforms
with massive financial assistance thus stabilising the pro-western groups among
the ?new elite?. Continued support from the West was seen as vital as the
present Russian leadership began the democratisation process and movement
toward a market economy with out this support the process could have, and still
could be reversed. Economic chaos and the weakness of central government may lead to a
power struggle with the ?national patriots,? according to some conservative
thinkers. These conservatives believe Russia to be humiliated, outwitted, and
even betrayed. Army support for this group could lead to a much more aggressive
policy vis-a-vis the former republics and bring an end to the? ?approchement
between East and West. Therefore, Russian integration into global institutions
was seen to be vital to continue the economic and social reforms, and to the stabilisation
of the Russian polity. As Wallander points out: institutions can play a
powerful role in domestic power struggles; defining interests themselves by
supporting the policy positions of individuals or groups within governments.[2] ??????????? To
sum up, the Russian leadership was aware that military power alone would be no
guarantee of Great Power status. To prevent Russia from being marginalized and
to push it towards the centre of global developments, economic reforms would be
necessary. For these reforms to succeed, massive investment and technical
expertise would be needed from the industrialised West and from financial
institutions controlled by the G7 nations. The main aim of Yeltsin (and most of
his government) was to link Russia with the West by way of the ?four D?s?: ?democratisation,
de-globalisation, de-ideologisation and de-militarisation.?[3]THE CIS:
INDEPENDENCE IN A NEW WORLD ORDER??????????? To
some of the former republics of the USSR, the collapse of the Union came as a
relief, to others a dis-orientating shock. The western republics such as the
Ukraine and the Baltic states, were set firmly on the path toward European
integration, the first step towards membership in the European Community. In
addition to the dispute between Russia and the Ukraine over the Black Sea
fleet, Kiev felt its relations with the Central Asian republics were more a
burden than anything else, and that a continuing association with the CIS could
well tie it to Asia forever. Therefore, the Ukraine, and perhaps Belorussia as
well, move firmly towards Europe and away from the CIS, following many of the
policies being pursued by Russia: integration into the global economy plus
financial and technical assistance to move towards a market economy and a civil
society. The much less developed Central Asian republics are turning toward
their religious and ethnic cousins in the Turkish and Islamic worlds. Turkey,
in particular has been interested in a strong presence in this area and devotes
much diplomatic energy in pursuing the former Soviet republics in an attempt to
pry them away from Russia . In June 1992, Turkey held a conference proposing a
Black Sea zone of economic co-operation which included delegations from Armenia
and Azerbaijan. In addition, multinational oil companies were attracted to the
area to supply much needed investment to build up state structures in these
semi- traditional societies. However, it must be recognised that for virtually
all the former republics, questions of internal economic and civil order, as
well as the relations with one another, either collectively or bilaterally,
have been more important than foreign policy in the world outside of the CIS.
These internal problems must be solved before these players can move, or
operate, on the world stage. It is for this very reason that an examination of the relations
between the CIS members is in order. Concentrating on the most pressing problems
facing this group of states: security, nationalism, and ethnicity. THE INTERNAL
FOREIGN POLICY AND SECURITY ISSUES OF THE CIS??????????? After
the treaty of Brest, concluded between the three Slavic states on 8 December
1991, the successor states of the USSR started to treat one another as foreign
countries. Russia had no qualms about positioning itself as the legitimate
successor to the Soviet Union and immediately
claimed the USSR?s seat on the UN Security Council, acquired all Soviet embassies,
the Central Bank, and Soviet gold reserves, in the process. However, the issue
which initially caused alarm among the successor states, and which has yet to
be satisfactorily resolved, was the tendency to treat the common strategic
armed forces as ?de facto? Russian armed forces. Since 80% of the officers are
Russian, and given the extent of possible inter-ethnic disputes, many of the
former republics regard the United Armed Forces to be a potential Russian
interventionist force. Hence, the drive towards formalising the division of the
armed forces and the setting-up of national guards. The recent settlement,
giving the Russian Federation 50% of Soviet weaponry, with the rest being
divided among the other CIS states proportionate to their influence, did not
include the Black Sea Fleet or nuclear weapons. The persistent haggling between
Ukraine and Russia over control of the powerful Black Sea fleet has emphasised
the strategic importance of the Crimea and contributed to a deterioration in
relations between the two strongest states in
the CIS. ??????????? However,
it is the control and destruction of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons which
remains of vital importance, not only to Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia and
Kazakhstan who all have strategic nuclear missiles on their soil; but to the
West as well. In order to fulfil bilateral international commitments and
prevent the proliferation of potential nuclear powers, Russia has patiently
tried to regain control of all its nuclear weapons not withstanding the
distrust of Kazakhstan and the Ukraine. These states regard nuclear weapons as
useful bargaining levers and an effective deterrent against Russia, which has
potential territorial claims against both Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In light of
the sixteen million ethnic Russians living in these states, Russia believes it
has legitimate security interests in protecting its foreign nationals and in
preventing instability that could bring massive waves of refugees flooding over
its borders. The Russian military also justifies its presence in nominally
independent states by pointing to its perceived vital national interests: in
protecting and securing strategic military bases, such as the Skrunda radar
site in? Latvia and, in denying outside
powers access to previously secure border regions which might threaten Russia
itself. ??????????? Therefore,
the dissolution of the Soviet Union has led to the proliferation of nuclear
control, the division of powerful armed forces into national units and the
creation of dozens of potential ethnic flash points. Russia, the only state in
the entire region with the ability to solve disputes and enforce solutions,
teeters on the brink of social and economic collapse and is suspected by many
of the successor states of harbouring imperialist ambitions. PROBLEMS OF
NATIONALISM AND ETHNICITY??????????? One
of the most serious and difficult questions confronting Russians today is not
how they will survive economic reform but whether they legitimately can accept
the independence of the other successor states. Because of the expansionist
nature of both the czarist and communist state, its national consciousness has
been centred on the empire and not on the Russian nation. ?The Russians have
never before been forced to define precisely who is a Russian and what the
proper limits of Russian territory should be.?[4]
This attitude permeates all levels of Russian society and was aptly summed up
by Galina Sidorava, an advisor to foreign secretary Kozyrev, when he remarked: ?There
is a psychological barrier preventing us from treating other CIS members as
absolutely independent.?[5]?The loss of empire and superpower
status is felt keenly by powerful sections of the old soviet military hierarchy,
who, given the right circumstances, would attempt to re-establish Russian
military hegemony over the old empire. However, many of the former republics are
happy with the release of long suppressed patriotic feelings, and this has resulted
in nationalist outbursts and assertive behaviour. While not dismissing the
relevance, or importance, of national and ethnic strife in areas with no direct
Russian interest; such as the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh involving
Armenia and Azerbaijan; it will be the treatment of ethnic Russian minorities
and the strength of ?Great Russian Chauvinism? which will be the final arbiter
in the future stability and security of the CIS area. ??????????? Altogether,
some twenty six million Russians live ?abroad? in other ex-Soviet republics.
The relatively greater importance of nationality over citizenship in Soviet
times convinces many of these Russians now living abroad that they in fact
remain citizens of the USSR. Over half of the twenty six million Russians live
in the Ukraine, where discrimination has not been a problem so far. However, in
the Baltic states, huge Russian minorities are being progressively
disenfranchised. In Central Asia, with a combined Russian population of over
ten million, fear of resurgent Islam and civil war is causing a stampede from
the region. In Georgia and Moldava, fighting is continuing involving
secessionist movements and Russian minorities. In addition, the Russian
parliament is questioning the legality of the transfer of the Crimea, where
Russians form the clear majority, to Ukranian jurisdiction in 1954 and has
called on Ukraine?s parliament to do the same. Leonid Kravchuk has denounced
what he sees as ?Russia?s imperialist disease? and refused to discuss the
matter. ?Borders are increasingly seen as?
artificial, leading many to conclude that repression, aggression, or
migration will eventually be the only option.?[6] ??????????? As
such tensions increase between states, they loom larger in Russia?s domestic
politics. No government, especially the faction – ridden elites of Moscow,
could be indifferent to the problems of so many of its people abroad. An
increasing number of nationalist-minded Russians argue that the Russian
government must make itself responsible for all Russians, wherever they live in
the former USSR. Among these is Russia?s former vice-president, Alexander
Rutskoi. In a television interview in 1992, he warned that: ?Any state must be
aware of the inevitability of punishment for what is perpetrated against
Russian citizens.?[7] Many powerful
figures in the Russian military support these views and have already actively
intervened in Georgia and Moldava. A policy of imposing spheres of influence,
through military means, is being actively pursued. In the Baltic republics, the
military wishes to protect ethnic Russians; in the Trans-Caucasian republics it
claims to protect strategic bases on the Black Sea, while in Central Asia it is
supposedly fighting Islamic fundamentalism. All of these measures are rationalised
by the presence of Russian minorities and forcing the government on to the
defensive, thus jeopardising the reforms and increasing the chances of a return
to authoritarian rule. Territorial claims by Russia have already prompted
Ukraine and Kazakhstan to hang on to their nuclear weapons. An increase in
Russian chauvinism, in protecting its minorities, or a pronounced swing to the
right in Moscow; could drive the new states to seek weapons systems or outside
powers for allies, thus exacerbating an already precarious situation. Alternatively,
the substantial non-Russian minority within the Russian federation (a fifth of
the population) could be encouraged to rebel in defence of their ethnic cousins,
or so goes the thinking of the day.??????????? Therefore,
it can clearly be seen that an aggressive Russian policy toward the new states
would encourage them to militarise, to seek control over nuclear weapons, and
to acquire outside allies, thus undermining Russia?s own security. The foreign
policy makers of the successor states would have to realise that it is in their
own interest to accommodate Russian interests and check any movement towards aggressive nationalism in their own
states. ?To recognise that Russians see themselves as having ?lost? while
others have gained, and that this sense of loss will inevitably lead to
rhetorical excesses that, given a responsible policy by others, will not lead
to action.?[8] To
acknowledge that Russia remains the overwhelming power in the region, and has
legitimate geopolitical concerns in many areas, would strengthen the hand of
Moscows reform-minded liberals in these very difficult times and lead to a
positive increase in security for all states. CONCLUSIONS??????????? At
the moment, the situation in the CIS and Russia remains in a state of flux and
transition. Events rather than deliberate policy continue to predominate and
guide the process toward the form which Russia and its republics will
eventually settle into.? In many ways,
foreign relations and security issues are governed by domestic necessity and
shifting political alignments, which rapidly change and prompt frequent shifts